关于苏德联盟的途径和概率分析
看到今天板子上很多人关心苏德联盟的问题，在此作一个简单的分析。
触发途径：
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact是联盟的最初始事件，这个事件是1939年8月23日的非随机事件。在这个事件中，如果苏德联盟，德国必须选择“历史协议”，这个AI概率是95%
#########################################################################
# The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
#########################################################################
event = {
id = 2050
random = no
country = GER
trigger = {
。。。。。。。。。。略
date = { day = 23 month = august year = 1939 }
。。。。。。。。。。1939年8月23日发生
action_a = {
name = "ACTIONNAME2050A" # Historical Agreement
ai_chance = 95
command = { type = trigger which = 2600 } # SOV
command = { type = relation which = SOV value = 15 }
command = { type = set_relation which = EST value = -75 }
command = { type = set_relation which = LAT value = -75 }
command = { type = set_relation which = LIT value = -75 }
command = { type = trigger which = 51 } # UK Gears up for war
command = { type = trigger which = 52 } # France Gears up for war
}
。。。。。。。。。。95%的可能会选择“历史事件”，此时触发苏联2600历史协议事件，和苏联好感度上升，和爱沙维亚，拉脱维亚，立陶宛好感度变成-75，英法触发备战事件。
action_b = {
name = "ACTIONNAME2050B" # Only agree to partition Poland
ai_chance = 4
command = { type = trigger which = 2601 } # SOV
command = { type = relation which = SOV value = 10 }
command = { type = dissent value = 5 }
command = { type = trigger which = 51 } # UK Gears up for war
command = { type = trigger which = 52 } # France Gears up for war
command = { type = sleepevent which = 2620 }
}
。。。。。。。。。。4%的可能会选择“仅仅瓜分波兰”，此时触发苏联2601有限协议事件，和苏联好感度稍上升，本国反战上升，英法触发备战事件。
action_c = {
name = "ACTIONNAME2050C" # No deals with the Bolsheviks!
ai_chance = 1
command = { type = relation which = SOV value = -20 }
command = { type = relation which = FIN value = 75 }
command = { type = relation which = HUN value = 75 }
command = { type = relation which = ROM value = 50 }
command = { type = end_non_aggression which = GER where = SOV }
command = { type = sleepevent which = 2620 }
command = { type = dissent value = 10 }
}
。。。。。。。。。。1%的可能会选择“不和布尔什维克主义谈判”，此时和苏联好感度下降并撕毁不侵犯条约，本国反战上升，和芬兰、匈牙利、罗马尼亚好感度上升。
}
如果德国抛出“绣球”，出发苏联时间2600，苏联也有三种选择。为了苏德联盟，必须选择第三个“提出邪恶联盟”，AI概率仅仅为1%
#########################################################################
# The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - Historical Pact
#########################################################################
event = {
id = 2600
random = no
country = SOV
。。。。。。。。。。略
action_a = {
name = "ACTIONNAME2600A" # A Most Excellent Proposition
ai_chance = 96
command = { type = trigger which = 2013 } # GER
。。。。。。。。。。“不错的建议”，出发德国2013事件，这也是历史选择。
command = { type = end_guarantee which = SOV where = FRA }
# Estonia
# Latvia
# Lithuania
# Bessarabia
# Claims on Finland
。。。。。。。。。。以上具体影响略
command = { type = relation which = GER value = 15 }
command = { type = relation which = FIN value = -5 }
command = { type = relation which = POL value = -50 }
command = { type = relation which = LIT value = -10 }
command = { type = relation which = LAT value = -10 }
command = { type = relation which = EST value = -10 }
command = { type = domestic which = interventionism value = 1 }
。。。。。。。。。。和德国好感度上升，和芬兰、波兰、波罗的海三国好感度下降，干涉主义。
command = { type = sleepevent which = 2650 } #Germany attacks w/o pact
}
action_b = {
name = "ACTIONNAME2600B" # No deals with the enemies of the Workers!
ai_chance = 3
。。。。。。。。。。“不和工人阶级的敌人谈判”，AI概率3%
command = { type = trigger which = 2014 } # GER
。。。。。。。。。。触发德国2014事件“苏联拒绝达成历史协议”
command = { type = relation which = GER value = -15 }
command = { type = sleepevent which = 2018 }
command = { type = sleepevent which = 2605 } #Germany dishonors Pact
}
action_c = {
name = "ACTIONNAME2600C" # Propose an unholy alliance
ai_chance = 1
。。。。。。。。。。“提出邪恶联盟”最关键的一个选择，AI概率只有1%
command = { type = relation which = GER value = 25 }
command = { type = trigger which = 2015 } # GER
。。。。。。。。。。和德国好感度上升25，出发德国2015事件
command = { type = sleepevent which = 2650 } #Germany attacks w/o pact
}
}
下边距离苏德联盟只有一布之遥，不过德国还要选择是否同盟。AI会以5%的概率接受
#########################################################################
# The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - Soviets Propose Alliance
#########################################################################
event = {
id = 2015
random = no
country = GER
# Triggered by SOV 2600
name = "EVT_2015_NAME"
desc = "EVT_2015_DESC"
style = 0
picture = "Mol_Rib"
action_a = {
name = "ACTIONNAME2015A" # Refuse alliance, but stand by pact
ai_chance = 95
。。。。。。。。。。95%的概率选择“拒绝同盟，但是支持（stand by）协议”
command = { type = relation which = SOV value = 5 }
command = { type = trigger which = 2603 }
command = { type = addcore which = 307 }
command = { type = addcore which = 306 }
command = { type = addcore which = 305 }
。。。。。。。。。。和苏联好感度小幅上升，仅仅加波兰三块地为核心领土
}
action_b = {
。。。。。。。。。。爽！苏德联盟，让世界颤抖吧！
name = "ACTIONNAME2015B" # Let the world tremble!
ai_chance = 5
command = { type = relation which = SOV value = 15 }
command = { type = alliance which = SOV }
command = { type = dissent value = 20 }
command = { type = domestic which = freedom value = -1 }
command = { type = trigger which = 2602 }
command = { type = addcore which = 307 }
command = { type = addcore which = 306 }
command = { type = addcore which = 305 }
command = { type = relation which = ENG value = -30 }
command = { type = relation which = USA value = -30 }
command = { type = relation which = FRA value = -30 }
}
}
由此看出，如果玩家是苏联，可以控制苏联一边的选择，那么发生概率就是95%*5%=4.75%。如果玩家是德国，那么只有一步要AI选择，可惜概率仅有1%。如果玩家不是两方中任何一方。。。。概率就只有万分之4.75了。上边那个玩民国玩出这个结果的，只能说是极品了。
[ 本帖最后由 zealotz 于 2007-5-17 18:21 编辑 ]
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